Employment and Unemployment Trends

Part I Trends and Features of the Labour Economy in 2002
Chapter 1 Employment and Unemployment Trends

Looking back on the labour market of 2002, despite some signs of improvement, the situation remained severe, as exemplified by the continuing high rate of full unemployment.

(1)	The ratio of active job openings to applicants (based on officially registered numbers at the public employment security office) gradually increased from the beginning of 2002.
(2)	While the number of male employees decreased, the number of female employees continued to increase, resulting in a decrease in the total employees of men and women for the first time in three years.
(3)	Unemployment remained high in 2002 with an average rate of 5.4%.
(4)	Long-term unemployment and householder unemployment continued to increase.

Job Openings and Jobseeker Trends
New job openings have, on the whole, been increasing since the beginning of 2002. The service industry offered more jobs in 2002 than in the previous year. Job offers from the manufacturing industry recorded a slowing-down in the decrease rate from the previous year and began to increase from the middle of 2002. The construction industry offered fewer jobs than in the previous year (Figure 1). The job openings for part-timers contribute to the increase of total job openings.
New jobseekers have remained at a high level from 2002 onward, and numbers of jobseekers in particular, apart from those who had left their previous employment, have also increased.

Trend in the Job Openings Ratio
The ratio of active job openings to applicants has been rising gradually since the beginning of 2002; however, the 2002 average was 0.54, down 0.05 percentage points from the previous year (0.59). The rate of new job openings to applicants has been increasing gradually since the beginning of 2002 as well but the year's average was 0.93, down 0.08 percentage points from the previous year (1.01) (Figure 2). The ratio by employment patterns (2002 on average) is 0.41 for ordinary workers and 1.32 for part -time workers.

Graduate Labour Market Trends
The placement recruitment rate of new graduates remained low in March 2003 (Table 3). The number of young people who are not engaged in work is increasing, reflecting the severe labour market for new graduates.

Employed Persons and Employee Trends
The average number of employed persons stood at 63.3 million in 2002 (down 0.82 million from the previous year). This reflects a 5-year downward trend. The average number of employees was 53.31 million in 2002 (down 0.38 million from the previous year), the first decrease in three years.
In summary, trends in number of employee in 2002 is as follows:

(1)	Temporary and daily employment is recovering but there is still a large decrease in numbers of regular employees (Figure 4).
(2)	Women are in a better employment situation than men.
(3)	Employment in the service industry has increased on the previous year, but that in the construction, manufacturing, transportation and telecommunication, wholesale, retail and restaurant industries has decreased from the previous year.

The numbers of self-employed and family workers are still decreasing.

Trends in the Unemployed
The number of the unemployed stood at 3.59 million, up 0.19 million on average from the previous year (original figure without seasonal adjustment), thus renewing the historical high. Among job seekers, the number of those who have left jobs involuntarily for business reasons is increasing reflecting depressed economy (Figure 5).
Long-term unemployed (those without a job for one year or more) also increased to 1.12 million (30.9% of the unemployed) in January-March 2003. The long-term unemployment rate (the rate of the long-term unemployed against the population in labour force) was 1.7%.
The number of unemployed householders recorded a high level with an average of 0.99 million in 2002.
The average unemployment rate in 2002 (original figure) was a total of 5.4%; 5.5% for men and 5.1% for women, thus renewing the historical high (Figure 6).

Trends of the Labour Force and Persons not in the Labour Force
The declining trend in the labour force participating rate reflects the growing number of people who change their activity status from labour force to not in labour force. Among persons not in the labour force, persons wishing to work (who wish to work but are seeking no job) by reasons of "no prospect of finding a suitable job" numbered 2.07 million in January-March 2003.

Frequency and Duration of Unemployment
With the long-term rise of the unemployment rate for both men and women, the unemployment frequency has been increasing and the unemployment duration has become longer since around 1990, with some fluctuation resulting from economic cycles.

Increasing Overtime Work and Employment
In recent years, the number of regular employee has not improved much despite the recovering economy and increasing quantity of non-scheduled working hours. This reflects the slow economic growth on the whole throughout the 1990s and the declining expectations for business growth. This has led to a feeling of employment surplus and prolonged employment adjustment. Furthermore, economy has turned down before completion of the adjustment because of the weak recovering power of the economy.

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