Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare

Japanese

IV. Analyses by cause of death

1. Mortality probabilities by cause of death

Mortality probability by cause of death means the probability that a person at specific ages will die of specified cause of death in the future.

As for leading causes of death in 2006, the probability of malignant neoplasms is the largest for both sexes at age 0, followed by heart diseases, pneumonia, cerebrovascular diseases for males and H.C.P.for females.

The mortality probability by three leading causes (i.e. malignant neoplasms, heart diseases and cerebrovascular diseases) of death accounts for over 50 percent for both sexes at age 0.

Table 7. Mortality probabilities by causes of death
(%)
Cause of death Age 0 Age 65 Age 75 Age 90
Male Female Male Female Male Female Male Female
Malignant neoplasms 29.97 20.56 29.37 18.68 25.81 16.44 15.00 9.92
Heart diseases 14.87 19.24 15.18 20.04 15.63 20.64 17.47 21.48
Cerebrovascular diseases 11.16 13.77 11.66 14.22 12.19 14.58 12.42 14.35
Pneumonia 12.47 12.07 14.11 12.80 15.99 13.57 21.39 16.20
Accidents 3.66 2.64 3.03 2.44 2.95 2.35 2.62 1.87
  Traffic accidents 0.82 0.38 0.42 0.28 0.33 0.21 0.11 0.05
Suicide 2.57 1.09 0.82 0.48 0.53 0.33 0.30 0.12
Renal failure 1.99 2.48 2.19 2.61 2.39 2.70 2.94 2.81
Diseases of liver 1.40 0.83 0.95 0.76 0.66 0.66 0.36 0.34
Diabetes mellitus 1.09 1.12 1.04 1.13 0.91 1.08 0.58 0.76
Hypertensive diseases 0.44 0.91 0.47 0.96 0.52 1.03 0.78 1.29
Tuberculosis 0.28 0.14 0.29 0.14 0.31 0.14 0.26 0.09
Senility 2.23 6.78 2.59 7.27 3.15 7.92 7.51 12.92
Three leading causes of death
(i.e. malignant neoplasms, heart diseases
and cerebrovascular diseases)
56.00 53.57 56.21 52.94 53.63 51.66 44.89 45.76
2. Potential years of life lost

Assuming that a certain cause of death is eliminated, a person who should have died of the cause would die of another cause afterwards. As a result, one’s life span would be extended. This extension, which is called the potential years of life lost of the cause, can be regarded as one’s life lost by that cause of death, and it enable you to estimate the effect of that cause to one’s life expectancy.

In 2006, the potential years of life lost by malignant neoplasms is the longest at age 0, followed by heart diseases, cerebrovascular diseases, and pneumonia for both sexes.

Potential years of life lost by the three leading causes of death are 8.31 years for male and 7.20 years for female at age 0, 6.67 years for male and 5.91 years for female at age 65, 5.11 years for male and 5.00 years for female at age 75, 2.31 years for male and 2.74 years for female at age 90.

Table 8. Potential years of life lost
(years)
Cause of death Age 0 Age 65 Age 75 Age 90
Male Female Male Female Male Female Male Female
Malignant neoplasms 4.02 3.01 3.09 2.03 2.07 1.41 0.58 0.45
Heart diseases 1.57 1.66 1.21 1.56 1.03 1.47 0.68 1.01
Cerebrovascular diseases 1.09 1.19 0.90 1.09 0.79 1.01 0.46 0.64
Pneumonia 0.92 0.84 0.97 0.85 1.00 0.85 0.86 0.72
Accidents 0.61 0.35 0.24 0.21 0.19 0.17 0.09 0.08
  Traffic accidents 0.23 0.09 0.04 0.04 0.02 0.02 0.00 0.00
Suicide 0.76 0.35 0.09 0.06 0.04 0.03 0.01 0.01
Renal failure 0.15 0.18 0.14 0.18 0.13 0.17 0.10 0.12
Diseases of liver 0.25 0.12 0.10 0.08 0.05 0.06 0.01 0.02
Diabetes mellitus 0.13 0.12 0.09 0.10 0.06 0.08 0.02 0.03
Hypertensive diseases 0.03 0.06 0.03 0.06 0.03 0.06 0.03 0.05
Tuberculosis 0.03 0.01 0.02 0.01 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.01
Three leading causes of death
(i.e. malignant neoplasms, heart diseases
and cerebrovascular diseases)
8.31 7.20 6.67 5.91 5.11 5.00 2.31 2.74

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